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A brief history of the Chinese growth model by Michael Pettis
from here

A brilliant piece from one of my favorite economists. Following are main points. (quote / paraphrase, no breach of copyright intended)


歐洲到處都有先進科技研發出來,
但工業革命首先發生在英美,
是因為工業革命不是由科技發展推動的,
而是由科技發展的商業應用推動的,
因此需要強大的金融系統
當時英美的金融系統能很好地支持


原來貿易保護主義的增長模型美國以前也用啊!
還是Alexander Hamilton (大愛此人)提出的...
著名的three reports to Congress, American System,
我竟然現在才知道...慚愧...
而正是由於這個模式,美國才成為世界最富有的國家

In addition, Americans had to acquire as much British technological expertise and capacity as possible (which usually happened, I should add, in the form of intellectual property theft). (呵呵...)

The idea that countries get rich under conditions of free trade has very little historical support, and it is far more likely that rich countries discover the benefits of free trade only after they get rich, while poor countries that embrace free trade eagerly...almost never get rich... (呵呵呵...)

貿易保護下,國內產業快速發展,但未必都能成為發達國家,
很可能是由於structure of domestic competition

there is nothing wrong with protecting domestic industry, but the point is to create an incentive structure that forces increasing efficiency behind barriers of protection. The difficulty, of course, is that trade barriers and other forms of subsidy and protection can become highly addictive, and the beneficiaries, especially if they are national champions, can become politically very powerful.  (呵呵呵呵...)

美國西進運動是私人投資者去尋求機會,政府跟隨
巴西和俄羅斯,私人沒有動機,政府主導,之後私人才有動機,政府一停止,商業也就結束了.
中國的西部大開發? 呵呵...